Ty's Oscar Predictions 2025
Some years it’s pretty obvious which film and which performances are going to win an Oscar. This is not one of those years.
I’ve been writing Oscar predictions for so many years that I can practically do it from muscle memory, and you’d think I’d have gotten pretty good at it by now. Think again. My correct guesses run in the 66% to 75% range every year – not bad, but also not hard to replicate if you keep your ears to the ground in the weeks leading up to the ceremonies. There’s no algorithm for predicting the Oscars, but there are tea leaves – in the guild awards that precede the show, in the Golden Globes and Britain’s BAFTAs, and in the hubbub and buzz that gets reported in the trades and that surfaces in social media.
A case in point: “Emilia Pérez” may have the most Academy Award nominations this year – I’m guessing in part because a lot of voters were able to see it on Netflix – but star Karla Sofía Gascón burned a lot of bridges with her ham-handed attempts to win back good will after revelations of ugly tweets from years back surfaced. (There's also the chance that as Academy members caught up with the rest of the nominated films, they realized that “Emilia Pérez” was more bold than good.)
And, of course, the winner of the Best Film statue doesn’t necessarily mean it’s the year’s best film. You could argue that it hardly ever does. My standard explanation of who gets an Oscar remains: It is that film or those performances that make the Academy voter feel the best about what it is that he or she does – whether because of the craft or the social message or (shhh) the quality – at the precise moment they’re filling out their ballots. An hour earlier or later, it might be entirely different. So there is no predicting.
But there is momentum, and the trick is to guess where the momentum is in the days, if not hours, before the ballot deadline of February 18. Other variables: The switch to ranked choice voting in 2009, which continues to affect the results in ways that I [not a numbers wonk] could not begin to tell you. The continued influx of younger Academy members, especially in the actors’ branch, which could explain why Timothée Chalamet pimped expected winner Adrien Brody at the SAG Awards last weekend.
Does any of it matter at all, especially in this Year of Our Dark Lord 2025? As far as I’m concerned, only if the awards get more people to watch “Nickel Boys” or “I’m Still Here” or “Flow” or “No Other Land,” and in the process expand their ideas of what movies are – which can lead to expanded ideas of what entertainment is, and art, and life’s possibilities, and what one unimportant audience member can due to address and change those possibilities. All else is pageantry, which can be fun in itself but that is more than ever a distraction from the business at hand.
Last comment: Some years it’s pretty obvious which film and which performances are going to win an Oscar. This is not one of those years. Take the predictions below with a larger grain of salt than usual, and feel free to cut me in on any betting-pool winnings.
(NOTE: Sorry for the overly unadorned prose below, but in the interests of getting this post out sooner rather than later, I've skipped putting in a lot of links, photos and videos. It's been a long week, I've written a ton, and I need to lie down for a bit.)
Best Picture
“Anora”
“The Brutalist”
“A Complete Unknown”
“Conclave”
“Dune: Part Two”
“Emilia Pérez”
“I’m Still Here”
“Nickel Boys”
“The Substance”
“Wicked”
Will Win: “Conclave”
Should Win: “Nickel Boys”
Shouldn't Be Here: “Dune: Part Two”/”Wicked” Part One
Was Robbed: “Sing Sing”
There are three front runners here: “Anora,” “The Brutalist” and “Conclave,” with “A Complete Unknown” a possible spoiler. “Anora” and “The Brutalist” have been piling up the guild awards, but I’m betting – quite possibly wrongly – that the bulletproof “they-still-make-‘em-like-they-used-to” verities of “Conclave” will unite the Academy’s old guard, voters who were turned off by “Anora,” and those who think “The Brutalist” isn’t All That. It’s the safest choice, the choice your dad would make, and in a weird year that may be the choice that wins. That said, if you think I’m wrong, bet on “Anora.” My favorite un-nominated movies in this category (“Hard Truths,” “A Real Pain,” “His Three Daughters”) are too talky/not “cinematic” enough to be realistic candidates, so I’m willing to suggest “Sing Sing” in the Was Robbed category – it’s stalwart filmmaking and beautifully acted, audiences love it and it pushes all the right emotional buttons to make it this year’s “CODA” (which is not an insult, I promise). As for “Dune: Part Two” and “Some of ‘Wicked,’ But We’ll Give You the Rest Next Year” – well, the award isn’t called Best Half a Picture.
Best Director
Sean Baker, “Anora”
Brady Corbet, “The Brutalist”
James Mangold, “A Complete Unknown”
Jacques Audiard, “Emilia Pérez”
Coralie Feargat, “The Substance”
Will Win: Sean Baker
Should Win: Sean Baker*
Shouldn't Be Here: Jacques Audiard
Was Robbed: Luca Guadagnino
Baker won the Directors Guild award and his film took the Producers Guild prize, both reliable bellwethers. (So why might it not win Best Picture? See my tortured reasoning above and figure there has to be at least one good Oscar night scandal, and a Best Picture/Best Director split would suffice.) The asterisk is there to reflect my admiration for what Coralie Feargat achieves in “The Substance” – a ball’s-out horror film with harsh truths about the impossible bind women find themselves in (in Hollywood and America) when they make the mistake of aging past their hotness date. Audiard has made some great movies (“A Prophet,” “The Beat My Heart Skipped”); “Emilia Pérez” isn’t one of them. But Luca Guadagnino made one of the sassiest entertainments of the year in “Challengers” (I don’t want to hear if the tennis wasn’t “real” enough) as well as his most achingly personal film to date in “Queer.” That’s gotta be worth something.
Best Actor
Adrien Brody, “The Brutalist”
Timothée Chalamet, “A Complete Unknown”
Colman Domingo, “Sing Sing”
Ralph Fiennes, “Conclave”
Sebastian Stan, “The Apprentice”
Will Win: Timothée Chalamet
Should Win: Timothée Chalamet
Shouldn't Be Here: Sebastian Stan
Was Robbed: Daniel Craig, “Queer”
The smart money is on Brody, but I guess I’m not smart, because I think his “Brutalist” role is too similar to his Oscar-winning performance in “The Pianist” – in outline only, but still – for Academy voters to bite a second time. That beeping alarm you hear is Chalamet’s upset win at last week’s Screen Actors Guild Awards. And you know what? The kid deserves it, as much for sending Gen-Z out of the theater to pilfer their grandparents’ Bob Dylan albums as for the five years of work he put into learning to play the guitar, play the harmonica and mumble. (And let’s not even talk about the fingernails – that’s commitment, baby!) He’s the It Actor of his generation and Sunday night will be his anointing. Daniel Craig’s performance in “Queer” is simply jaw-dropping in its vanity-free depths of feeling; he definitely belongs here more than Stan’s eeerily good recreation of the young Donald Trump.
Best Actress
Cynthia Erivo, “Wicked”
Karla Sofía Gascón, “Emilia Pérez”
Mikey Madison, “Anora”
Demi Moore, “The Substance”
Fernanda Torres, “I’m Still Here”
Will Win: Demi Moore. No, Mikey Madison. Wait, Fernanda Torres.
Should Win: Mikey Madison
Shouldn't Be Here: They’re all worthy, honestly
Was Robbed: Marianne Jean-Baptiste, “Hard Truths”
Moore has the edge among Oscar prognosticators and for good reason: She’s a well-liked industry survivor who’s never received the respect some feel she’s deserved, and “The Substance” doubtless resonates on a very deep level with a lot of the actors (male and female, but especially female) who make up the Academy’s largest voting branch. And she’ll give (another) great speech. That said, the Oscars do like to raise up deserving actress newbies (think Marisa Tomei, Geena Davis and others), and Madison has won a lot of the run-up awards. Gascón is the first trans actress to be nominated but almost certainly won’t win after souring voters with a mismanaged atonement tour. The dark horse candidate here is Torres, who won the Golden Globe for Actress in a Drama; if she wins, expect Brazil to launch itself into outer space from collective joy. The actual best performance by an actress in 2024? Marianne Jean-Baptiste as the loneliest kvetch in London in Mike Leigh’s careworn kitchen sink drama.
Best Supporting Actor
Yura Borisov, “Anora”
Kieran Culkin, “A Real Pain”
Edward Norton, “A Complete Unknown”
Guy Pearce, “The Brutalist”
Jeremy Strong, “The Apprentice”
Will Win: Kieran Culkin
Should Win: Kieran Culkin (or Edward Norton)
Shouldn't Be Here: Jeremy Strong
Was Robbed: Bobita, “Do Not Expect Too Much from the End of the World”
(Special award to the busiest supporting player of 2024: Fred Hechinger in “Thelma,” “Nickel Boys” and “Gladiator II”)
As close to a lock as the night will give us. Culkin’s portrayal of the family lost boy in “A Real Pain” will handily win, and it should. And so should Norton’s impeccably played Pete Seeger in “A Complete Unknown,” a heartbreaker of a performance for very different reasons. Strong’s Roy Cohn in “The Apprentice” is a dazzling work of darkness, but it has the slightest whiff of gimmickry to it, and if I had to bounce one, this would be it. Bobita is Ilinca Manolache’s social media alter ego in Radu Jude's bleakly comic Romanian satire – a swaggering, foul-mouthed bully of a Putin-wannabe – and because he’s not actually a real person, I’m kidding that he should be included in this category. But maybe I’m not kidding.
Best Supporting Actress
Monica Barbaro, “A Complete Unknown”
Ariana Grande, “Wicked”
Felicity Jones, “The Brutalist”
Isabella Rossellini, “Conclave”
Zoe Saldaña, “Emilia Pérez”
Will Win: Zoe Saldaña
Should Win: Isabella Rossellini
Shouldn't Be Here: Ariana Grande
Was Robbed: Aunjanue Ellis-Taylor, “Nickel Boys”
Saldaña has won a lot of the run-up awards and is expected to prevail here – possibly the only Oscar that “Emilia Pérez,” the most nominated movie of the year, may win. If there's a spoiler, it's Barbaro, who'd be another one of the Academy's young unknowns to stage an upset in this category. Me? I’d give it to Rossellini, just to hear her acceptance speech. Ellis-Taylor’s performance as a loving, guilt-laden grandma is one of many nominations that “Nickel Boys” should have had but didn’t.
Best Writing (Adapted Screenplay)
“A Complete Unknown”
“Conclave”
“Emilia Pérez”
“Nickel Boys”
“Sing Sing”
Will Win: “Nickel Boys”
Should Win: “Nickel Boys”
The WGA award went to RaMell Ross’s ingenious adaptation of Colson Whitehead’s best-selling novel, and Ross's creativity (plus the source author’s cultural standing) should guarantee a win. Unless “Conclave” or “Sing Sing” come from behind.
Best Writing (Original Screenplay)
“Anora”
“The Brutalist”
“A Real Pain”
“September 5”
“The Substance”
Will Win: “Anora”
Should Win: “Anora”
Another WGA winner; if Sean Baker doesn’t prevail in any other category, he’ll surely prevail here, and deservedly so. No other movie in 2024 balanced so many tones of drama, comedy, tragedy and social satire; no other movie invited such variations of response. And it’s all in the script.
Best Animated Feature Film
“Flow”
“Inside Out 2”
“Memoir of a Snail”
“Wallace & Gromit: Vengeance Most Fowl”
“The Wild Robot”
Will Win: “Flow”
Should Win: “Flow”
Gints Zilbalodis’ fable is so arrestingly original – five animals exploring a mystical landscape after the flood – that it has bowled over everyone who has seen it. Next to “Flow,” the other entries look like, um, kid stuff.
Best International Feature Film
“I’m Still Here,” Brazil
“The Girl with the Needle,” Denmark
“Emilia Pérez,” France
“The Seed of the Sacred Fig,” Germany
“Flow,” Latvia
Will Win: “I’m Still Here”
Should Win: “I’m Still Here”
“Flow” will win Best Animated Feature,” “The Girl with the Needle” is too damn brutal, “Emilia Pérez” has crashed and burned. That leaves “I’m Still Here,” Walter Salles’ sensitive and uplifting (and relevant) tale of a woman holding a dictatorship to account, and “The Seed of the Sacred Fig,” an Iranian movie too dangerous to be released in Iran (it’s Germany submission to the awards). “Fig” is very strong, but it’s expected that “Here” will be stronger, in part because of the pillar of strength at its center.
Best Documentary Feature
“Black Box Diaries”
“No Other Land”
“Porcelain War”
“Soundtrack to a Coup d’Etat”
“Sugarcane”
Will Win: “Black Box Diaries”
Should Win: “No Other Land”
“No Other Land,” a Palestinian/Israeli co-production about the Israeli government’s demolition of Palestinian villages, is easily the stand-out in a tough field – folks, please see all these movies – and it won the Golden Globe. But it lands in the middle of a polarizing and agonized debate in this country, and the Oscars have historically been unreceptive to pro-Palestinian points of view. (See “Vanessa Redgrave,” “Zionist hoodlums,” “1978.”) Times may have changed; times may not have. This category is as tough to predict as any this year, but I’m hazarding a guess that Japan’s “Black Box Diaries,” in which journalist Shiori Itō documents her attempts to bring her rapist, a media figure and friend of the Prime Minister, to justice may eke out a win. (It’s on Paramount+, Apple TV and Amazon, if you’re curious; "No Other Land," tellingly, does not have a US distributor.)
Best Film Editing
“Anora”
“The Brutalist”
“Conclave”
“Emilia Pérez”
“Wicked”
Will Win: “Conclave”
Should Win: “Anora”
Now we get into the craft categories. “Best Editing” usually means most editing, but I’m betting that the rock-ribbed classicism of “Conclave” will take the field. You know what, though? On my second viewing of “Anora,” I was struck by how remarkably well the movie was edited by Baker himself and how subtly its cutting underscores the social tragedy the film only seems to glance at. It’s brilliantly invisible work, as the best editing often is.
Best Cinematography
“The Brutalist”
“Dune: Part Two”
“Emilia Pérez”
“Maria”
“Nosferatu”
Will Win: “The Brutalist”
Should Win: “Nickel Boys”
“The Brutalist” is the classiest, most ambitious, most scandal-free and most critically respected of the bunch, and it looks like a sure thing. Interestingly, Ed Lachman’s camerawork for the Maria Callas biopic “Maria” won at the American Society of Cinematographers awards last week, and not undeservedly, but that probably won’t matter to the Academy’s larger voting pool. That Jomo Fray’s groundbreaking work in “Nickel Boys” went un-nominated is to me the biggest single oversight of this year’s awards. The movie practically reinvents the grammar of film narrative, for God’s sakes!
Best Costume Design
“A Complete Unknown”
“Conclave”
“Gladiator II”
“Nosferatu”
“Wicked”
Will Win: “Wicked”
Should Win: “Wicked”
An easy-peasy win for Paul Tazewell’s beyond-the-rainbow couture in “Wicked.”
Best Makeup and Hairstyling
“A Different Man”
“Emilia Pérez”
“Nosferatu”
“The Substance”
“Wicked”
Will Win: “The Substance”
Should Win: “A Different Man”
Unless the Academy chooses to steer to the safer harbors of “Wicked,” the gonzo game-changing prosthetics of “Substance” should take the prize. Possible spoiler: The trans-formations of “Emilia Pérez.” Personally, the mind games and face switching of “A Different Man” were closer to my dark heart.
Best Production Design
“The Brutalist”
“Conclave”
“Dune: Part Two”
“Nosferatu”
“Wicked”
Will Win: “Wicked”
Should Win: “Conclave”
A tight field. “Conclave,” “Nosferatu,” and “Wicked” all picked up awards from the Art Directors Guild this year, not that that means anything among the larger Academy voting pool. It’ll be a toss-up, I think, between the over-the-top fantasy settings of Nathan Crowley’s work for “Wicked” and Suzie Davies’ recreation of the Vatican’s inner chambers as a marble and scarlet chessboard in “Conclave.” You can tell where my heart lies; as to where Oscar’s does, your guess is as good as mine.
Best Music (Original Song)
“El Mal” (“Emilia Pérez”)
“The Journey” (“The Six Triple Eight”)
“Like a Bird” (“Sing Sing”)
“Mi Camino” (“Emilia Pérez”)
“Never Too Late” (“Elton John: Never Too Late”)
Will Win: “El Mal,” probably.
Should Win: They're all terrible.
Stephen Thompson’s takedown for NPR of this year’s duff batch of songs is funnier and more astute than anything I could write. “El Mal,” from “Emilia Pérez,” seems to have the edge, unless sentiment for “Sing Sing” or confusion about its title spills over to this category. It’s also possible the voters could go the nostalgia route and give it to Elton John.
Best Music (Original Score)
“The Brutalist”
“Conclave”
“Emilia Pérez”
“Wicked”
“The Wild Robot”
Will Win: “The Brutalist”
Should Win: “The Brutalist”
By contrast, there’s not much competition here, with Daniel Blumberg’s score for “The Brutalist” every bit as majestic yet innovative as the rest of the movie works hard to be. If the composers’ branch of the Academy had ears for anything with a beat, Trent Reznor and Atticus Ross’s propulsive EDM score for “Challengers” would be a nominee. With its melodramatic “Law and Order” ka-chungs, Volker Bertelmann’s music for “Conclave” is the year's Most Unintentionally Funny Score.
Best Sound
“A Complete Unknown”
“Dune: Part Two”
“Emilia Pérez”
“Wicked”
“The Wild Robot”
Will Win: “Dune: Part Two”
Should Win: “A Complete Unknown”
The movie with the best blips and beeps usually takes this category, and the first half of “Dune” won in 2022. Unless voters decide that they’ve already awarded the franchise enough bling and give it to “Wicked.” “A Complete Unknown” is, among other things, about a cultural revolution in sound – about how one man changed what could be said, sung and played in a popular song – and it would be pretty neat if it won.
Best Visual Effects
“Alien: Romulus”
“Better Man”
“Dune: Part Two”
“Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes”
“Wicked”
Will Win: “Dune: Part Two”
Should Win: “Better Man”
Why isn’t “The Substance” in this category? Probably because its F/X were largely prosthetic rather than pixellated. “Dune: Part Two” will probably win for managing to make Austin Butler look ugly, but “Better Man,” a rock biopic in which British pop star Robbie Williams is played by a digital ape, would be the more audacious choice.
Best Animated Short Film
“Beautiful Men”
“In the Shadow of the Cypress”
“Magic Candies”
“Wander to Wonder”
“Yuck!”
Will Win: “Magic Candies”
Should Win: “Magic Candies”
“Beautiful Men” and “Wander to Wonder” are creative but weird to no apparent purpose, “Yuck!” is cute but slight and “In the Shadow of the Cypress” is elegant but slight. That leaves the funny and mysteriously poetic Japanese entry “Magic Candies” to take the prize.
Best Live Action Short Film
“A Lien”
“Anuja”
“I’m Not a Robot”
“The Last Ranger”
“The Man Who Could Not Remain Silent”
Will Win: “A Lien”
Should Win: “A Lien”
As I wrote in my WaPo review, this is a crushingly bleak group of shorts, no fault of the filmmakers or the voters who nominated them. The strongest and most topical by far is “A Lien,” about a married couple torn apart by an ICE entrapment scheme. You can watch it here; it’s infuriatingly well done.
Best Documentary Short
“Death By Numbers”
“I Am Ready, Warden”
“Incident”
“Instruments of a Beating Heart”
“The Only Girl in the Orchestra”
Will Win: “Incident”
Should Win: “Incident”
Bill Morrison’s “Incident” (watch it here) documents the 2018 shooting death of Harith “Snoop” Augustus by Chicago police officers from the uninflected POVs of street surveillance cameras and law enforcement body cams; it’s an astonishing formal achievement that doubles as a damning urban “Rashomon.” Unless voters opt for the less challenging charms of Netflix’s “The Only Girl in the Orchestra,” about retiring New York Philharmonic double bassist Orin O’Brien, “Incident” should win.
Th-th-that's all, folks. I'll be filing for WaPo on Sunday night but will probably weigh in on the awards on Monday. Feel free to leave a comment or your own predictions below, or add to someone else's.
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